Myanmar Opium Survey 2020: Despite 11 per cent drop in cultivation, country's drug economy continues to fuel armed conflict

Myanmar recorded a sharp reduction of 11 per cent of its area under opium poppy cultivation in 2020, but the country continues to be the major supplier of opium and heroin in East and Southeast Asia, as well as Australia.

The report titled “Myanmar Opium Survey 2020-Cultivation, Production, and Implications” published by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has also revealed a drop in opium production to 405 metric tons in 2020. This was less than half of the 870 metric tons produced in 2013. It attributes the decline in area under cultivation and production of opium to the regional drug market’s continued shift to synthetic drugs.

The UNODC report is a summary of results of the extensive 18^th Opium Survey in Myanmar. The survey was conducted jointly by the Central Committee for Drug Abuse Control (CCDAC) of the Ministry of Home Affairs and UNODC, which collected statistical information on illicit crop cultivation in Myanmar within the framework of its Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme (ICMP).

The estimated opium poppy cultivation in 2020 was 29,500 hectares, against 33,100 hectares in 2019. The decreasing trend has persisted since 2014, when the opium was cultivated on an estimated 57,600 hectares of land, according to the Report.

In 2020, domestic heroin consumption of 6 tons was valued at US$ 144 - 315 million, whereas the export of heroin from Myanmar to neighbouring countries was worth between US$ 0.3 and 1.2 billion, it states.

Quoting sources from UNODC 2019 Report on Transnational Organized Crime in Southeast Asia: Evolution, Growth and Impact 2019 (TOCTA-EAP), the Report states- “in addition to generating considerable illicit proceeds, heroin also continues to pose a significant public security and health challenge for neighbouring countries as Myanmar remains the major supplier of opium and heroin in East and Southeast Asia, as well as Australia.”

According to the Report, there are over 3 million heroin users in the region who, together, consume roughly US$10 billion worth of the drug annually and confirm that heroin remains an important source of income for organized crime.

Myanmar shares a long land border of over 1600 Km with India as well as a maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal. Four North-Eastern States -Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram share international boundaries with Myanmar.

Shan state contributed the largest share of opium cultivation with 24,7000 hectares accounting for 84 per cent share. This is followed by Kachin with cultivation in 3,600 hectares accounting for 12 per cent. Kayah and Chin states accounts for remaining 4 per cent of the total cultivation area.

“In 2020, large areas with high to very high density of opium poppy cultivation were reported in the southwestern mountains of South Shan. Likewise, the eastern part of North Shan, bordering the Wa region, as well as Tanai and the border area east from Myitkyina city in Kachin State showed high concentrations of poppy,” it states.

The Report, however, states that in 2020 the survey could not be conducted in Chin and Kayah states. The data of 2018 were used to calculate the total opium poppy cultivation area in order to maintain comparability with the previous surveys.

Yield Survey

A yield Survey was also conducted for the first time since 2015. In Kachin state, yield was estimated at 16.0 kg per hectare an increase of 28 per cent compared to the last field survey in 2015. In the absence of yield surveys in Shan in 2020, a multi-year average of all yield data from 2014 onwards was calculated for each Shan State region.

“It has not been possible to conduct yield surveys in Kayah State since 2014 and not at all in Chin State due to budget constraints”, it adds.

Photo - Ratna Bharali Talukdar

Farm Gate Price

For the farm-gate price of opium in 2020 village survey could not be carried out COVID-19 pandemic. A limited number of fresh opium price data were collected in connection of the yield survey in Kachin. The average farm-gate prices at the time of harvest and dry opium were assessed at 174,311 Kyat (US$ 131) and 190,620 Kyat (US$ 144) per kilogramme, respectively. In 2019, average farmgate prices of fresh and dry opium were estimated at 217,076 Kyat (US$ 145) and 239,489 Kyat (US$ 160) per kg, respectively.

The Report states that since 2015, the corresponding farm-gate prices of fresh and dry opium have dropped significantly by 52 per cent and 61 per cent respectively.

“Decreasing prices together with a reduced supply of opium can be an indication of a decreased demand for opiates from Myanmar, both in the country and throughout the region. At the same time, lower prices make opium cultivation less attractive, which might be contributing to the declining area under cultivation,” it states.

Market and economy

Opium is consumed as raw opium or in processed heroin form and both raw opium and heroin reach the end-consumer markets in and outside Myanmar.

The report further states: “In 2020 domestic consumption of 6 tons of heroin led to an income between US$ 144 and 315 million, whereas the export of heroin (13 - 53 tons) was deemed to be worth between US$ 299 million and 1.21 billion for Myanmar traffickers. The overall gross value of the Myanmar opium economy for the year 2020 ranged between US$ 502 and 1.58 billion, equivalent to 0.7 and 2.1 per cent share of the 2019 national GDP. The value of manufacturing and trafficking after farm-gate up to the border of Myanmar ranged between US$ 444 and 1.48 billion (0.6 - 1.9 per cent of the GDP). These values represent the income generated by traffickers after deducting the costs of buying raw opium from the farmers.

Drug Economy and Conflict

The Report further states that drug economy of Myanmar has a strong impact on ongoing conflict situation in the country.

“There has long been a connection between drugs and conflict in Myanmar, with the drug economy fuelling the conflict, and conversely the conflict reinforcing the country’s drug economy. Illicit drugs allow armed groups in Shan State and elsewhere to generate profits, while other groups that are less involved also manage to profit from “taxation” of the trade. This income underpins a corrosive political economy and facilitates continued militarization, ultimately helping sustain civil conflict.”

It states that any meaningful action to address the conflict is required to break the cycle.

Mitigation measures

The Report has suggested that the influence of Myanmar’s drug economy can be mitigated by adopting alternative development programmes, “that provide assistance directly to opium-dependent communities on the ground, offering viable, sustainable sources of legitimate income. While related programmes are critical to the country’s future, the drug economy must also be offset by addressing the escalating threat posed by transnational organized crime groups that continue producing and trafficking heroin while scaling-up the production of methamphetamine and other synthetic drugs for the regional drug market.”

The Report, available online https://www.unodc.org/southeastasiaandpacific/en/2021/02/myanmar-opium-survey-report-launch/story.html has clearly stated that to ensure safety, security and livelihoods for the people of Shan and Kachin states and in border areas of Mekong region, it is important to counter both drug production and organised crime networks.

“The annual opium survey report is an essential tool for assessing the extent of opium poppy cultivation in Myanmar, as well as understanding changes in cultivation and production patterns and the links between drugs and the rural economy. This information is useful for understanding cultivation techniques, rural livelihoods and for designing effective alternative development options. It is also important for supporting decision makers to develop effective strategies to sustain the transition from an illicit to a licit economy, and as a basis for understanding the connection between the drug economy and ongoing conflict”, it states.

Opium poppy cultivation Myanmar Hectare area

Total potential production of dry opium:2020

Ratna Bharali Talukdar